THE INVESTMENT CASE IN ONE MINUTEContract visibility today. Renewal economics tomorrow.
Constellation is an established Brazilian offshore driller with six active owned ultra-deepwater rigs, a stacked midwater rig and two managed units. Repriced contracts support earnings, while the 2026 refinancing lowers interest costs and extends debt maturities.
The key question is what remains after taxes, capex and scheduled repayments. Firm contract coverage falls from 76% in 2027 to around 29% in 2030, so later earnings rely increasingly on renewals. This lab lets you test that exposure, including Atlantic Star’s possible return to work.
01 / VALUATION LAB
What is COSH worth to you?
2027 YEAR-END SCENARIO VALUE
NOK 176.10
+32.4% price upsidevs NOK 133.00 reference
Undiscounted value at the selected year-end. Cash distributions excluded.
TOTAL RETURN TO YEAR-END+49.4%Including forecast distributions from 29 October 2026.
From operating value to your share
EV / EBITDA bridgeCash generation and distributions
EBITDAFCFEDistributions
USD million. Distributions are constrained by minimum cash. Full-year amounts include payments already made in 2026.
02 / FLEET & CONTRACTS
Company fleet report ↗See where the visibility ends.
6Active owned UDW rigs
1Stacked owned midwater rig
2Managed rigs
Petrobras is the principal customer. Lone Star works for Brava Energia. Atlantic Star completed its Karoon campaign in July 2026.
Firm contract runway
OwnedManagedStacked / no firm work
Firm expiry dates from August 2026 disclosures; month-only dates are approximated at month-end. Priced or unpriced options are excluded. The orange line marks 29 October 2026. Bars show expiry runway, not historical operating days or guaranteed future revenue.
Edit individual rig economicsNet realised rates and daily costs · NHG estimates, not disclosed fixturesExpand +
| Owned rig | Firm expiry | Net dayrate USDk / day | Renewal rate USDk / day | Operating cost USDk / day | Idle cost USDk / day |
|---|
Current rates remain subject to the annual contracted-rate escalation input. Renewal rates apply after the firm expiry and are multiplied by the renewal-rate factor. Two managed rigs enter through net fees, without owned-rig capex.
2027 owned-fleet contribution
Your active assumptions| Rig | Firm days | Renewal days | Revenue USDm | Cash rig costs USDm | Rig EBITDA USDm |
|---|
03 / FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
NHG base caseFollow the cash through 2030.
2026 combines H1 actual cash flows with an H2 forecast. 2027–2030 are full-year forecasts. Core revenue excludes reimbursable managed-fleet revenue. Normalised profit and diluted earnings are modelling proxies, not IFRS forecasts.
Edit annual assumptionsSet a different path for each year. Values feed the same model as the controls above.Expand +
04 / DISTRIBUTIONS & DATES
Information checked 29 October 2026Separate payments from potential.
USD 0.296 per share
The third share-premium tranche was paid on 11 September 2026, with an ex-date of 25 August. NDR payments are converted into NOK.
Issuer announcement ↗USD 140m for 2026
The USD 100m baseline plus a USD 40m step-up. The extra amount was approved on 15 October and is payable after Q3 reporting, subject to the applicable conditions.
The reviewed step-up notice does not confirm a per-share amount or payment date. Modelled future payouts remain estimates.
15 October approval ↗Dates to watch
- Reconvened EGM
Proposed USD 35m buyback authority - Q3 report
Issuer’s updated financial calendar - Q3 call · 13:00 GMT
Scheduled by Quartr - Indicative next baseline ex-date
7 December payment; board verification pending
From 2027, requested distributions equal the higher of the baseline or your payout percentage of FCFE after scheduled principal repayments. Payments are then capped by cash above the minimum liquidity balance. Buybacks use any remaining surplus. The USD 35m proposal is set to zero by default.
05 / METHOD & SOURCES
Know what you are changing.
A forecast you can trace
This dashboard follows the NHG COSH Financial Model 2026–2030. The unmodified base case reproduces the workbook’s core revenue, EBITDA, cash flow, debt, dividends and valuation calculations.
2026 starts at the upper end of formal revenue and EBITDA guidance. From 2027, each owned rig earns its assumed rate on firm days and on a separate renewal schedule, with idle time, utilisation and cash costs. The two managed rigs contribute net fees; fees after their disclosed 2028 expiries assume extensions.
EV / EBITDA value deducts forecast year-end net debt and divides by diluted shares. DCF discounts 2027–2030 unlevered cash flows and an exit multiple to 31 December 2026, then deducts 2026 year-end net debt.
Source model dated 29 October 2026, repaired after the analyst comparison. This is a fixed data snapshot; reference prices, events and distributions do not update automatically.
The assumptions that matter
Renewal exposure: reported contract coverage falls materially in 2029–2030. Renewal rates and idle periods are estimates, not signed work.
Capex: base 2027 spending of USD 95m includes roughly USD 20m for Brava Star’s MPD system. Management expects no installation-related out-of-service time.
Accounting: reimbursable revenue has an equal cost. Managed finance-sublease cash costs remain a conservative proxy: the issuer’s receipt maturity table is inconsistent with its finance-income line. The annual assumptions let you test different settlements. Warrants already included in issued shares are not added again; a separate allowance covers possible MIP shares.
Refinancing cash: 2026 includes USD 36.45m redemption premiums plus USD 11.8m fees assumed incremental. Cash coupons are separate from interest expense; the first new-bond coupon is paid in February 2027. Operating one-off costs reduce DCF; financing costs are excluded from unlevered cash flow.
Limits: individual rig rates, long-term tax, renewal costs and payout rules are NHG estimates. The model does not certify intra-quarter liquidity or covenant compliance. Potential funding gaps are shown explicitly. Annual cash capacity does not confirm that a dividend is permitted under the bond covenants.
Company disclosuresSources −
NHG / COSH COVERAGERead NHG’s COSH research ↗Articles, earnings updates and investment analysis from Norwegian Hidden Gems.01 / ACTUALS & GUIDANCECOSH Q2 2026 financial statements ↗H1 financials, cash flow, debt and lease accounting.02 / FLEET & BACKLOGCOSH Q2 presentation ↗Guidance, contract coverage and fleet expiries.03 / CAPITAL ALLOCATIONSeptember investor presentation ↗Distribution proposal, refinancing and branding inspiration. Rig and ocean imagery © Constellation.04 / DEBT TERMSIssuer bond terms ↗Cash coupon and annual repayment dates.05 / REFINANCING SETTLEMENTOld-bond redemption notice ↗Remaining USD585m redemption premium and accrued interest.